Hu secures his legacy but lineup shows power sharing in party
(c) 2007 South China Morning Post Publishers Limited, Hong Kong. All rights reserved.
When more than 2,200 delegates to the Communist Party's 17th National Congress voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to enshrine the "concept of scientific development" in the party constitution, President Hu Jintao secured his legacy and elevated his standing to the ranks of Mao Zedong , Deng Xiaoping and his predecessor, Jiang Zemin .
Mr Hu begins his second and final five-year term trying to define the future for the party and the country. In his keynote speech at the opening of the congress, he vowed to lead the people "in starting from a new historical point" and he used the phrase for democracy more than 60 times in his speech.
But this does not mean that China is making a radical break with the past and will march towards western-style democracy any time soon. In fact, all the measures Mr Hu outlined in his speech, including giving ordinary party members a bigger say and introducing direct elections for grass-roots party positions, are aimed at strengthening the party's leadership.
The catchphrase "socialism with Chinese characteristics" roughly translates into something like "the Communist Party will maintain a monopoly over power while promoting raw capitalism disguised as socialism".
Nor do the references signal the dawn of Mr Hu's era, as many of his supporters and overseas media would have hoped. This is amply reflected in the new leadership line-up unveiled yesterday in the Great Hall of the People. Among the four new Politburo Standing Committee members, only Li Keqiang , the party secretary of Liaoning , is identified as a close ally of Mr Hu. Xi Jinping , Shanghai's party secretary, is more associated with former president Jiang while He Guoqiang , minister of the party's Organisation Department, and Public Security Minister Zhou Yongkang are strong supporters of outgoing Vice-President Zeng Qinghong .
That means Mr Hu can probably only count Premier Wen Jiabao , National People's Congress chairman Wu Bangguo , and Mr Li as allies on the nine-member committee. The other two incumbent members staying on for a second term, Jia Qinglin , the chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and Li Changchun , the top party official in charge of propaganda, are considered allies of Mr Jiang.
Many overseas analysts and media may interpret the new line-up and Mr Hu's unsuccessful attempt to anoint Li Keqiang as his successor as a failure to consolidate his grip on power.
"Getting policies implemented is not a measure of [party leadership effectiveness - getting proteges promoted is a true measure of power," John Tkacik, senior research fellow in Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation, said.
The ranking of the new Politburo Standing Committee members show that Mr Xi, 54, is slightly higher than Li Keqiang, 52. This indicates that Mr Xi is slated to succeed Mr Hu as the party boss and Li Keqiang may replace Mr Wen when they retire in 2012.
In addition, Mr Hu's favourite slogan "building a harmonious society" was not written into the party charter, signalling strong disagreements and resistance to his theories within the party. More significantly, however, Mr Hu's failure to anoint a successor signals the era of paramount leaders is probably over in China.
The emergence of a new batch of officials in the Politburo and its Standing Committee has given China watchers the opportunity to spot and analyse the so-called fifth-generation leaders, with Li Keqiang and Mr Xi at the top. Other core fifth-generation leaders are most likely to include the new Politburo members, including Wang Qishan , Wang Yang , Bo Xilai and Li Yuanchao .
Beijing mayor Wang Qishan, 59, is expected to become one of the vice-premiers responsible for macro-economic planning or financial policies in March when the National People's Congress approves the reshuffle of the State Council.
Wang Yang, 52, currently Chongqing's party secretary, is slated to become the Guangdong party chief, while Mr Bo, 58, the Minister of Commerce and a prominent princeling, is to become the Chongqing party secretary.
Li Yuanchao, 57, currently Jiangsu party secretary, will replace Mr He as the top party official in charge of personnel appointments.
All four of them are widely seen as strong candidates to join the Politburo Standing Committee in 2012.
But if history is any guide, Mr Xi and Li Keqiang are most likely to remain low-key and shy away from controversy until their time comes.
Mr Hu was a low-profile member of the Politburo Standing Committee for 10 years before he became party chief in 2002.
Against this background, the mainland leadership will be even more consensus-driven in order to achieve a delicate balance of power among the various party factions.
As a result, sweeping policy changes are unlikely both in the short- and medium-term.
In the near-term, the mainland leadership will be busy reshuffling personnel in the State Council and the various government ministries following the rearrangement of the party leadership at the congress.
This means that any major policy announcements will be delayed until after the NPC meets in March.
In the medium-term - as Mr Hu seeks stability, continuity and consensus - any reforms, especially political changes, will be incremental.
This may not be a bad thing for China, already the world's fourth largest economy, as any drastic upswings and downturns also carry implications for the global economy.
Still, the congress was significant in many ways.
For one, Mr Hu proved to be a deft and skilful politician as he tried to cement his authority. When he came to power as the party chief in 2002 and state president in 2003, he was largely an enigma, giving rise to the question "Who is Hu?".
But he showed his teeth during the 2003 Sars crisis by sacking the then mayor of Beijing and the health minister for covering up the epidemic. He then manoeuvred to force Mr Jiang to relinquish the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission in 2004.
In a bid to rein in local officials who frequently ignored central government directives and remove those seen as disloyal to him, Mr Hu launched a concerted mainland-wide anti-corruption campaign in mid-2005, leading to the arrest of dozens of senior officials in Beijing, Tianjin , and Shandong , and culminating in the sacking of Chen Liangyu , the former Shanghai party secretary and a strong ally of Mr Jiang.
With his rising authority, Mr Hu also started to stamp his own vision for the future growth of the party and the country by preaching the so-called "scientific concept of development" and "building a harmonious society". The phrases may sound empty and vague but they carry real political and economic implications.
With the party charter including "the scientific concept of development", Mr Hu has secured a strong mandate to steer the mainland's economic model away from the-growth-at-any-cost focus of the past 30 years towards a more balanced and sustainable pattern.
But that does not mean Mr Hu is seeking to slow economic growth too much. In fact, his top priority will continue to be to deliver strong economic growth, which has legitimised the Communist Party's rule.
What distinguishes Mr Hu from the previous mainland leadership is that he has promised to pay more attention to social equity and justice by boosting welfare spending for the poor and disadvantaged and stepping up efforts to curb environmental degradation.
To highlight his emphasis on allowing all mainlanders to reap benefits of economic growth, he refined a long-standing goal by saying the party aimed by 2020 to quadruple the per capita gross domestic product of 2000. Previously, the goal was to quadruple total economic output during the same period.
But, as several overseas analysts note, Mr Hu has little to show for his theories.
"So far it has not resulted in a better life for ordinary people, as Mr Hu's critics have pointed out," University of Miami political scientist June Teufel Dreyer said. "While the idea of promoting a more harmonious society continues, society seems progressively more disharmonious."
Indeed, Mr Hu and other mainland leaders face a series of difficult domestic problems in effecting the shift, and not simply because it will take more than a change in the party charter to transform the mindsets of government officials who have pursued unfettered economic growth for nearly 30 years.
Despite the extraordinary double-digit annual economic growth over the past five years, the party's legitimacy and authority are under siege. For the leadership, China confronts similar, if not more serious, conditions to those that led to the massive pro-democracy rallies and the subsequent bloody crackdown of June 1989. They include rampant official corruption, growing social unrest, widening income gaps, serious environmental degradation, soaring unemployment, worsening law and order and failed reforms in housing, medical care and education.
More and more officials have openly admitted that most of the problems stem from a lack of political reform.
It is in this context that Mr Hu has outlined a series of measures to expand the so-called "intra-party democracy", aimed at boosting the accountability and transparency of the party leadership.
"Hu's ideas on intra-party democracy are attractive in theory but, even if perfectly executed, would do no more than strengthen the party's authoritarian hold on society," Professor Dreyer said.
However, many party officials have held out the hope that a willingness to undertake those measures could lead to bigger changes down the road.
For instance, some believe that competitive elections could be held to elect Politburo members or even Politburo Standing Committee members in 2012, when the party's 18th congress is held.
"As the era of the paramount leaders anointing successors is over, competitive elections are the only way out for Xi (Jingping), Li (Keqiang), and others to compete for the party and government positions in the fifth-generation leadership," said one party official who declined to be named.
When more than 2,200 delegates to the Communist Party's 17th National Congress voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to enshrine the "concept of scientific development" in the party constitution, President Hu Jintao secured his legacy and elevated his standing to the ranks of Mao Zedong , Deng Xiaoping and his predecessor, Jiang Zemin .
Mr Hu begins his second and final five-year term trying to define the future for the party and the country. In his keynote speech at the opening of the congress, he vowed to lead the people "in starting from a new historical point" and he used the phrase for democracy more than 60 times in his speech.
But this does not mean that China is making a radical break with the past and will march towards western-style democracy any time soon. In fact, all the measures Mr Hu outlined in his speech, including giving ordinary party members a bigger say and introducing direct elections for grass-roots party positions, are aimed at strengthening the party's leadership.
The catchphrase "socialism with Chinese characteristics" roughly translates into something like "the Communist Party will maintain a monopoly over power while promoting raw capitalism disguised as socialism".
Nor do the references signal the dawn of Mr Hu's era, as many of his supporters and overseas media would have hoped. This is amply reflected in the new leadership line-up unveiled yesterday in the Great Hall of the People. Among the four new Politburo Standing Committee members, only Li Keqiang , the party secretary of Liaoning , is identified as a close ally of Mr Hu. Xi Jinping , Shanghai's party secretary, is more associated with former president Jiang while He Guoqiang , minister of the party's Organisation Department, and Public Security Minister Zhou Yongkang are strong supporters of outgoing Vice-President Zeng Qinghong .
That means Mr Hu can probably only count Premier Wen Jiabao , National People's Congress chairman Wu Bangguo , and Mr Li as allies on the nine-member committee. The other two incumbent members staying on for a second term, Jia Qinglin , the chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and Li Changchun , the top party official in charge of propaganda, are considered allies of Mr Jiang.
Many overseas analysts and media may interpret the new line-up and Mr Hu's unsuccessful attempt to anoint Li Keqiang as his successor as a failure to consolidate his grip on power.
"Getting policies implemented is not a measure of [party leadership effectiveness - getting proteges promoted is a true measure of power," John Tkacik, senior research fellow in Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation, said.
The ranking of the new Politburo Standing Committee members show that Mr Xi, 54, is slightly higher than Li Keqiang, 52. This indicates that Mr Xi is slated to succeed Mr Hu as the party boss and Li Keqiang may replace Mr Wen when they retire in 2012.
In addition, Mr Hu's favourite slogan "building a harmonious society" was not written into the party charter, signalling strong disagreements and resistance to his theories within the party. More significantly, however, Mr Hu's failure to anoint a successor signals the era of paramount leaders is probably over in China.
The emergence of a new batch of officials in the Politburo and its Standing Committee has given China watchers the opportunity to spot and analyse the so-called fifth-generation leaders, with Li Keqiang and Mr Xi at the top. Other core fifth-generation leaders are most likely to include the new Politburo members, including Wang Qishan , Wang Yang , Bo Xilai and Li Yuanchao .
Beijing mayor Wang Qishan, 59, is expected to become one of the vice-premiers responsible for macro-economic planning or financial policies in March when the National People's Congress approves the reshuffle of the State Council.
Wang Yang, 52, currently Chongqing's party secretary, is slated to become the Guangdong party chief, while Mr Bo, 58, the Minister of Commerce and a prominent princeling, is to become the Chongqing party secretary.
Li Yuanchao, 57, currently Jiangsu party secretary, will replace Mr He as the top party official in charge of personnel appointments.
All four of them are widely seen as strong candidates to join the Politburo Standing Committee in 2012.
But if history is any guide, Mr Xi and Li Keqiang are most likely to remain low-key and shy away from controversy until their time comes.
Mr Hu was a low-profile member of the Politburo Standing Committee for 10 years before he became party chief in 2002.
Against this background, the mainland leadership will be even more consensus-driven in order to achieve a delicate balance of power among the various party factions.
As a result, sweeping policy changes are unlikely both in the short- and medium-term.
In the near-term, the mainland leadership will be busy reshuffling personnel in the State Council and the various government ministries following the rearrangement of the party leadership at the congress.
This means that any major policy announcements will be delayed until after the NPC meets in March.
In the medium-term - as Mr Hu seeks stability, continuity and consensus - any reforms, especially political changes, will be incremental.
This may not be a bad thing for China, already the world's fourth largest economy, as any drastic upswings and downturns also carry implications for the global economy.
Still, the congress was significant in many ways.
For one, Mr Hu proved to be a deft and skilful politician as he tried to cement his authority. When he came to power as the party chief in 2002 and state president in 2003, he was largely an enigma, giving rise to the question "Who is Hu?".
But he showed his teeth during the 2003 Sars crisis by sacking the then mayor of Beijing and the health minister for covering up the epidemic. He then manoeuvred to force Mr Jiang to relinquish the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission in 2004.
In a bid to rein in local officials who frequently ignored central government directives and remove those seen as disloyal to him, Mr Hu launched a concerted mainland-wide anti-corruption campaign in mid-2005, leading to the arrest of dozens of senior officials in Beijing, Tianjin , and Shandong , and culminating in the sacking of Chen Liangyu , the former Shanghai party secretary and a strong ally of Mr Jiang.
With his rising authority, Mr Hu also started to stamp his own vision for the future growth of the party and the country by preaching the so-called "scientific concept of development" and "building a harmonious society". The phrases may sound empty and vague but they carry real political and economic implications.
With the party charter including "the scientific concept of development", Mr Hu has secured a strong mandate to steer the mainland's economic model away from the-growth-at-any-cost focus of the past 30 years towards a more balanced and sustainable pattern.
But that does not mean Mr Hu is seeking to slow economic growth too much. In fact, his top priority will continue to be to deliver strong economic growth, which has legitimised the Communist Party's rule.
What distinguishes Mr Hu from the previous mainland leadership is that he has promised to pay more attention to social equity and justice by boosting welfare spending for the poor and disadvantaged and stepping up efforts to curb environmental degradation.
To highlight his emphasis on allowing all mainlanders to reap benefits of economic growth, he refined a long-standing goal by saying the party aimed by 2020 to quadruple the per capita gross domestic product of 2000. Previously, the goal was to quadruple total economic output during the same period.
But, as several overseas analysts note, Mr Hu has little to show for his theories.
"So far it has not resulted in a better life for ordinary people, as Mr Hu's critics have pointed out," University of Miami political scientist June Teufel Dreyer said. "While the idea of promoting a more harmonious society continues, society seems progressively more disharmonious."
Indeed, Mr Hu and other mainland leaders face a series of difficult domestic problems in effecting the shift, and not simply because it will take more than a change in the party charter to transform the mindsets of government officials who have pursued unfettered economic growth for nearly 30 years.
Despite the extraordinary double-digit annual economic growth over the past five years, the party's legitimacy and authority are under siege. For the leadership, China confronts similar, if not more serious, conditions to those that led to the massive pro-democracy rallies and the subsequent bloody crackdown of June 1989. They include rampant official corruption, growing social unrest, widening income gaps, serious environmental degradation, soaring unemployment, worsening law and order and failed reforms in housing, medical care and education.
More and more officials have openly admitted that most of the problems stem from a lack of political reform.
It is in this context that Mr Hu has outlined a series of measures to expand the so-called "intra-party democracy", aimed at boosting the accountability and transparency of the party leadership.
"Hu's ideas on intra-party democracy are attractive in theory but, even if perfectly executed, would do no more than strengthen the party's authoritarian hold on society," Professor Dreyer said.
However, many party officials have held out the hope that a willingness to undertake those measures could lead to bigger changes down the road.
For instance, some believe that competitive elections could be held to elect Politburo members or even Politburo Standing Committee members in 2012, when the party's 18th congress is held.
"As the era of the paramount leaders anointing successors is over, competitive elections are the only way out for Xi (Jingping), Li (Keqiang), and others to compete for the party and government positions in the fifth-generation leadership," said one party official who declined to be named.
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